The race to the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final at Lord’s is heating up as teams vie for a spot in the prestigious summit clash.
With South Africa becoming the first team to officially qualify, the standings remain dynamic, influenced by the outcomes of each series.
South Africa's consistent performance throughout the championship cycle has set the benchmark, leaving other teams scrambling for the second spot.
India’s path to the WTC final is now more challenging.
For India to qualify, they must win both remaining Tests in Melbourne and Sydney, ending with 60.53 points.
This would surpass Australia's 57.02, even if Australia sweeps their two-Test series in Sri Lanka 2-0. Sri Lanka's highest possible total, 53.85 points, can only be achieved with a 2-0 victory against Australia at home.
If India wins one Test and draws the other, they will finish with 57.02 points. In this case, Australia could claim second place with 58.77 points by winning both Tests in Sri Lanka.
For India to qualify with 57.02 points, Australia must earn no more than 16 points in Sri Lanka, which equals one win and one draw.
A win and a loss in Australia would leave India at 55.26 points, requiring Sri Lanka to defeat Australia by at least a 1-0 margin for India to advance.
Two draws would result in India finishing with 53.51 points. Sri Lanka could surpass this with a 2-0 victory, while Australia would only need one win in Sri Lanka to stay ahead.
If India draws one Test and loses the other, they would finish with 51.75 points, effectively ending their qualification hopes.
Australia would remain ahead even if they lose 2-0 in Sri Lanka.
If Australia wins the Melbourne and Sydney Tests against India, they will secure a spot in the WTC final, finishing with 57.02 points even if they lose 2-0 in Sri Lanka.
A win and a draw against India would also keep them ahead of India, even if they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka. However, Sri Lanka could surpass Australia with a clean sweep.
Winning one and losing one against India would require Australia to secure at least one win in Sri Lanka to remain in contention. The same holds true if both Tests against India end in draws.
If Australia draws one Test and loses the other against India, they will need two wins in Sri Lanka to stay in the race.
Sri Lanka's maximum achievable points percentage is 53.85, which they can reach by defeating Australia 2-0. However, for this to secure them a second-place finish, one of two scenarios must unfold in the remaining Border-Gavaskar Trophy Tests.
First, both the Melbourne and Sydney Tests would need to end in draws. Alternatively, Australia could win one of the two home Tests, provided the other ends in a draw.
In any other outcome, either Australia or India will exceed the 53.85 mark, thereby eliminating Sri Lanka from contention.
Pakistan is officially out of the race for a spot in the WTC final after losing the series opener against South Africa.
They were required to win all their remaining matches against South Africa and the West Indies to keep their hopes alive.
Unfortunately, their loss to South Africa ended their chances of securing a spot in the WTC final.